memory_alphafandomcom-20200223-history
Statistical Probabilities (episode)
Bashir helps a group of genetically-engineered (and eccentric) Humans who are visiting him try to make a useful contribution to the Federation; the Dominion offers to sign a truce with the Federation. Summary Lieutenant Karen Loews, a Starfleet psychiatrist, brought four genetically-engineered Humans to Deep Space 9 looking for help from Dr. Bashir. The group hadn't been as lucky as Bashir, and every one had strong social disabilities (mania, bipolar disorder, catatonia, etc). Even if they had ambiguous feelings for "mister productive member of society" at first, they finally accepted Bashir as one of them. In a meeting with the rest of the station's senior staff, Bashir informed them of his wish to help the group become normal members of society. The feedback he received was divided, but Bashir decided to give it a try regardless. They were interrupted when the patients broke into the com system to contact their new friend about an annoying high-pitched noise. Back in their quarters, Bashir confirmed what nobody else could hear and Miles O'Brien soon arrived to fix the problem with some unexpected help from Patrick. While Bashir and O'Brien are in the room, the newly-appointed leader of the Cardassians, Gul Damar, broadcasts a speech, and not wanting to miss it they watch it on the room's viewscreen. The transmission captures the group's attention, and they are quickly enthralled by it, making very accurate guesses about who Damar is even though they know nothing about him. Bashir and O'Brien were astonished at the speed with which the group were able to deduce much of Damar's story based on only the one speech. The group did not stop there and, now quite interested in the matter, they quickly go through all the database material about Cardassia and the Dominion. Grabbing the opportunity, Bashir convinced Captain Sisko to let his new friends assist the peace talks between the Dominion and Starfleet on the next day. The group proved very useful in uncovering a move by the Dominion to acquire a strategic planet that would have allowed them to produce ketracel-white. Sisko even agreed to send the information, and the analysis behind it, to Starfleet Intelligence. In the meantime, Bashir went to Quark's with O'Brien after the group noticed that the chief seemed to miss his friend, especially since his wife was off-station. Bashir proved difficult, walking the wrong side of the thin line between super-intelligent Humans and "uncomplicated" (as he qualifies O'Brien), "slow" people. Later, back with the group, Bashir attempted to cheer them up by announcing that Starfleet had granted them access to classified information, but he is welcomed by a new and devastating projection. According to them, the Federation would be defeated and eventually rebuild from a rebellion against the Dominion. Since it seemed inescapable, the best move would be to surrender immediately to prevent the loss of life. With that in mind, Bashir tried to convince Sisko to take the appropriate action, but the captain did not see it that way. It was Quark who eventually brought enlightenment to Bashir by pointing out at a dabo table that even when the odds were against you, you can still win. Nevertheless, when Bashir explained the situation to the others, they chose to take the fate of the Federation into their hands and contacted the Dominion by themselves. Bashir objected, so they disabled him. Fortunately with the help of Sarina, he was able to prevent them from committing treason. To his angry "friends", he then explained that even if probabilities were not on your side, one person could still change the course of history. As such, the Federation was ready to bet nine hundred billion lives. Jack was still furious, but Bashir assured them that he would listen if they ever found a way to defeat the Dominion. Bashir then promised to visit them at the Institute where they were to return. Memorable quotes "Did you hear that? He used the passive voice transitive." "Since when can you speak Dominionese?" "Since this morning." :- Jack and Bashir "They're going to cut us open, see what makes our biologically-enhanced brains tick!" : - Jack "There are rules, don't talk with your mouth full, don't open an airlock when somebody is inside it, and don't lie about your genetic status!" : - Jack "Wait a minute. Is it a kind of high-pitched whine?" "Yes! Thank God! See, I told you we weren't crazy!" (He runs to hug Julian) "You are a mutant! You are!" : - Bashir and Jack "So we go down fighting then. How terribly courageous of us." : - Bashir when Sisko tells him he will not surrender even though fighting will mean 900 billion deaths "It's not our place to decide who lives and who dies! We're not gods!" "Maybe not, but we're the next best thing." "Can you hear yourself? That's precisely the kind of thinking that makes people afraid of us!" : - Bashir and Jack "Can I give you a word of advice, Weyoun?" "By all means." "You're welcome to play your little "we're all friends here" act with me. But I wouldn't try it on Captain Sisko. He's not in the mood." "We're on a mission of peace, Major. Maybe he should get in the mood." : - Kira, Weyoun and Damar "We seem to have gotten ourselves lost." "Mm-hm. They're not coming." (Innocently) "Who's not coming?" "I had a feeling you were going to say that." : - Weyoun, Odo and Damar "The way our statistical analysis works the further in to the future you go the more accurate the projection. It's based on a kind of non linear dynamics whereby small fluctuations tend to factor out over time" : - Bashir Background information Story * This episode originated in Ira Steven Behr's desire to probe deeper into Bashir's genetic enhancements, not his 'abilities' per se, but the implications of those abilities; "I was never totally comfortable with our discovery of Julian's genetic engineering. It was one of those revelations that did not seem quite authentic to me. We'd had to work backward to get it. So I felt we needed to do something to help that idea along." (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Companion) * The storyline was based on Isaac Asimov's classic . Asimov based his work on issues raised in 's , and the basic plot involves a scientist ( ) who develops a branch of mathematics known as which he uses to calculate that galactic civilization is doomed to fall, leading to 30,000 years of darkness and barbarism. Seldon, terrified at this prospect, takes to attempt to minimize the oncoming "dark ages" to only 1,000 years, but his plan fails to foresee that the actions of a single individual could render his predictions invalid. Psychohistory is based upon , and it can only predict the future when dealing with large groups, predicting trends in large masses of people, which is why Seldon fails to take into account the actions of individuals – when it gets down to individual people, the variables become so vast as to be impossible to calculate, so the predictions become unstable. In the novels, a character called , who has psychic abilities, becomes intimately involved in events, and directly influences their outcome, something which Seldon's psychohistory could never have predicted. This is exactly what happens in the episode: the savants make large scale predictions based upon mass action, but they fail to take into account the actions of one single individual, who comes to directly affect everything they have predicted. * In René Echevarria's first draft of this episode, the savants were a think-tank that had been recruited and trained by Starfleet Intelligence. They had been sent on an intelligence mission to Deep Space 9 and they were to operate under the supervision of Bashir. However, because the story called for the characters to be somewhat neurotic, the idea that Starfleet had entrusted these people with such sensitive information quickly became absurd, and Echevarria changed the plot so they were sent to Deep Space 9 not as intelligence consultants, but simply for counseling. (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Companion) * Echevarria's second draft had the episode begin before the savants arrive, and featured a lengthy scene where Bashir finds out about the personality of each one, but Echevarria realized it was better to introduce the characters by showing their idiosyncrasies in action as opposed to telling the audience about those idiosyncrasies. (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Companion) * Observing Gul Damar's broadcast, Jack references William Shakespeare's plays Henry IV, Part II ("Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.") and Macbeth ("Methought I heard a voice cry 'Sleep no more! Damar does murder sleep.") * Luther Sloan references the events of this episode in and again in . * Damar becomes leader of the Cardassian Union in this episode. * Interestingly enough, the group's predictions about the Romulans entering the war and the Cardassian Rebellion would later come true. * The population of the Federation seems to be estimated from , which states that there are 150 member worlds, as well as the approximate population of Earth at the time this episode was produced. Production *The music played at the "party" is Johann Strauss the Younger's An der schönen blauen Donau, more commonly known in English as "The Blue Danube", a waltz written in 1867, and later featured in . The dance sequence was originally supposed to be far more elaborate than that seen in the final episode, and was to include a lengthy crane shot, but neither Alexander Siddig nor Hilary Shepard Turner were able to dance properly, and in the end, the shot was scrapped. *During pre-production of this episode, there was a great deal of discussion as to where to set it, ie where to have the savants. The script specified that they were to be in the wardroom, but from a practical point of view, shooting several scenes with five characters in a such a relatively small location, was not desirable, so it was agreed to move the scenes to somewhere else. It was Steve Oster who suggested the cargo bay, because "we thought we might be saying something about Starfleet's treatment of these people if we put them in the cargo bay." (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Companion) *This is the first of two episodes to be directed by Anson Williams. The second is . Cast and characters *The character of Jack is based upon Dean Moriarty, one of the main characters of the 1951 novel , a wannabe philosopher who talks at a mile a minute. *Of his performance as Jack actor Tim Ransom says "I figured he's the equivalent of a guy who drinks forty cups of coffee a day." (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Companion) *Of her performance as Lauren, actress Hilary Shepard Turner says, "She was described as being obsessed with Bashir, and very ''va-va-voom, but I decided to make her a little Hannibal Lecter-ish as well. It was director Anson Williams' idea to never have Lauren stand up. The only time I ever stood was when I danced with Bashir''." (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Companion) *Of his performance as Patrick, actor Michael Keenan says, "He's essentially a child, so I just played him that way. Children have instant access to their emotions and they don't filter anything, so that's what I did." (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Companion) *Of her performance as Sarina, actress Faith C. Salie says "I was told to behave pretty much catatonic. Anson told me, 'There's a lot going on in your mind, because you're genetically enhanced, and you're brilliant, but you can't facilitate it because your body doesn't know how.' I created a switch in my brain that I could turn on and off to make everything become hazy around me, so that it seemed as if an amalgam of voices and sense were coming at me and that it was overwhelming." (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Companion) *Jack, Lauren, Patrick and Sarina reappear in the seventh season episode . Indeed, the writers only conceived of this show because Sarina never spoke in "Statistical Probabilities", and they were interested in developing her character a little more. Originally, she was supposed to have a few lines in this episode, but the scene in which she spoke (when she untied Bashir) was cut for time. *This is one of Alexander Siddig's favorite shows; "People ask, 'Was that a comedy or a drama?' "Statistical Probabilities" was like that, not quite one thing or the other. The humor came out of the misery and angst captured by those wonderful actors. And I enjoyed the fact that Bashir served as a kind of pinball throughout that show. He was just battered about." (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Companion) *Siddig also admires the show for its political engagement; "The episode touched on a couple of political issues in terms of whether or not you can incarcerate people like this. I think the commentary that came out of Bashir's mouth was right and called attention to the fact that double standards happen in society. We ''do put good people away, like the Japanese-Americans placed in internment camps during World War II. The group in this episode seemed like lovely people, and Bashir showed some vulnerability in the fact that he understood their plight. They might not have been misfits if they had not been put away for such a long time''." (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine Companion) Video and DVD releases *UK VHS release (two-episode tapes, CIC Video): Volume 6.5, . *As part of the DS9 Season 6 DVD collection. Links and references Starring * Avery Brooks as Captain Sisko Also starring * Rene Auberjonois as Odo * Michael Dorn as Lt. Commander Worf * Terry Farrell as Lt. Commander Dax * Cirroc Lofton as Jake Sisko * Colm Meaney as Chief O'Brien * Armin Shimerman as Quark * Alexander Siddig as Doctor Bashir * Nana Visitor as Major Kira Guest stars *Jeffrey Combs as Weyoun *Tim Ransom as Jack *Jeannetta Arnette as Karen Loews *Hilary Shepard Turner as Lauren *Michael Keenan as Patrick *Casey Biggs as Damar *Faith C. Salie as Sarina Douglas Uncredited co-stars * Mark Allen Shepherd as Morn * David B. Levinson as Broik Stunt double * Brian Hite as the stunt double for Tim Ransom References Bashir, Singh el; "Blue Danube, The"; Cardassia; cormaline; dabo; darts; DNA resequencing; Dominion; Dominionese; Dukat; Eugenics Wars; genetic engineering; Holna IV; "Institute"; Jem'Hadar; Kabrel system; Kabrel I; Kabrel II; Kandora champagne; ketracel-white; mizinite; Obsidian Order; power coupling; Quark's; Romulans; ; Starfleet; Starfleet Command; Starfleet Intelligence; ; three-dimensional chess; treason; ; yridium bicantizine; Ziyal, Tora External links * * |next= }} de:Statistische Wahrscheinlichkeiten es:Statistical Probabilities nl:Statistical Probabilities Category:DS9 episodes